Loto Maroc is a 6/49 draw with 1 complementary ball. Your ticket outcome is fixed at purchase. Only 5 prize tiers exist, starting at 3 matched main numbers. A 5 MAD grid buys one combination. Draws run 3 times weekly in Morocco.
Odds literacy prevents fantasy budgeting. It also stops false pattern-chasing. You can quantify each tier, compare it to daily risks, and price system play. The jackpot can climb through rollovers, yet the math remains stubborn. Understanding the model makes the game legible and expectations stable.
Understanding Loto Maroc Odds
Lottery odds decide the economic reality of every ticket. They show how rarely a jackpot event occurs. They also show why small prizes happen far more often. Reading the odds correctly reduces reckless staking. It also blocks the “I was close” illusion after near-misses.
Loto Maroc uses 6 main numbers from 1–49, plus 1 complementary ball. Each draw is random, and each ticket is only one combination unless you play multiple. The jackpot is guaranteed to start at 5,000,000 MAD and grows after each draw until it is won. Draws occur Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday at 21:00 local time.
Why Lottery Odds Are So High
The core driver is combinatorics. You must match 6 distinct numbers, order irrelevant.
The count of possible 6-number sets is: C(49,6) = 13,983,816 possible main-draw combinations.
That is why the jackpot odds are 1 in 13,983,816.
Key factors that inflate the odds:
- Large number pool: 49 candidates for each grid.
- No repeats: the 6 selections must be unique.
- Order doesn’t help: 1-2-3-4-5-6 equals any permutation.
- Random mechanical draw: each draw re-randomizes the entire space.
Everyday probability comparison
| Event (rough scale) | Typical chance | Notes |
| Loto Maroc jackpot (match 6) | 1 in 13,983,816 | Main draw only |
| Struck by lightning in a year (US stat) | ~1 in 1,200,000 | Annual, not lifetime |
| Dealt a royal flush (5-card poker) | 1 in 649,740 | Single hand |
“Rigged lottery” claims usually ignore controls. The official operator states a controlled, secured framework and publishes draw mechanics and prize ranks. Independent supervision and audit practices vary by jurisdiction and vendor, yet the structural math alone already explains the rarity; you do not need a conspiracy to get brutal odds.
Difference Between Odds and Probability
Odds express a ratio of unfavorable to favorable outcomes, often shown as “1 in N.”
Probability expresses the same event as a percentage.
For the jackpot:
- Odds: 1 in 13,983,816
- Probability: (1 ÷ 13,983,816) × 100 = 0.00000715%
Examples converting between the two (Loto Maroc scenarios):
- Jackpot: 1/13,983,816 → 0.00000715%
- Rank 2 (5 + complementary): 1/2,330,636 → 0.0000429%
- Rank 4 (match 4): 1/1,033 → ~0.0968%
Formula table
| Task | Formula | Output type |
| Odds → probability % | (1 ÷ N) × 100 | Percent |
| Probability % → odds | 100 ÷ p% | “1 in N” |
| Probability (decimal) | 1 ÷ N | 0–1 |
Understanding this helps realistic assessment. “I feel close” is not a metric. The correct metric is an event rate per ticket, plus cost in MAD.
Loto Maroc Odds by Prize Tier
Prize tiers depend on how many of your 6 main numbers appear among the 6 main balls. The complementary ball only matters for the second rank. Loto Maroc defines 5 winning ranks: 6, 5 + complementary, 5, 4, 3. Knowing tier odds lets you price your expectations beyond jackpot talk.
- Jackpot Odds (Match 6 Numbers)
- Exact jackpot odds: 1 in 13,983,816 (C(49,6)).
Combinatorics formula: C(49,6) = 49! / (6! × 43!)
Manual computation steps:
- Multiply descending: 49×48×47×46×45×44
- Divide by 6×5×4×3×2×1
- Result equals 13,983,816 combinations
- One of those combinations matches your 6 numbers
Recent 2026 jackpot sizes (MAD) and quick stats
| Draw date (2026) | Jackpot (MAD) |
| 19 Jan | 7,300,000 |
| 24 Jan | 7,500,000 |
| 31 Jan | 7,800,000 |
| 02 Feb | 8,000,000 |
| 11 Feb | 8,500,000 |
| Next draw (14 Feb) | 8,600,000 |
Average jackpot across the listed 19 Jan–11 Feb sample: ~7,872,727 MAD (simple mean).
Context versus other lotteries: a 6/49 jackpot rate is standard for classic formats. Some international games add extra balls or larger pools, which typically worsens jackpot odds further.
Odds for 5 Numbers + Complementary
Mechanics: you match exactly 5 of the 6 main numbers, and your remaining ticket number matches the complementary ball drawn after the 6 mains. The complementary ball is drawn from the same 1–49 pool.
- Odds: 1 in 2,330,636.
- Probability: ~0.0000429%
Influencing factors:
- Complementary ball is not a “bonus multiplier,” only a rank trigger.
- You must miss exactly 1 main number, not 0 or 2.
- The missed ticket number must become the complementary ball.
Probability breakdown
| Tier | Odds | Probability % |
| 5 + complementary | 1 in 2,330,636 | 0.0000429% |
It is more reachable than jackpot purely by count, yet still an extreme outlier event. Expect long droughts between hits at single-ticket volume.
Odds for Lower Prize Categories
Loto Maroc prize ranks (official) start at 3 matched main numbers. Odds below are theoretical, based on the published 6/49 + complementary structure.
Full tier table (math model)
| Prize tier | Match condition | Odds (1 in N) | Probability % | Typical prize (MAD)* |
| Rank 1 | 6 | 13,983,816 | 0.00000715% | Variable |
| Rank 2 | 5 + complementary | 2,330,636 | 0.0000429% | Variable |
| Rank 3 | 5 | 55,491 | 0.00180% | Variable |
| Rank 4 | 4 | 1,033 | 0.0968% | Variable |
| Rank 5 | 3 | 56.7 | 1.765% | Variable |
*Exact MAD payouts fluctuate with sales, rollovers, and winner counts. The operator publishes ranks, but the cash per tier is draw-dependent.
Examples (how to read it):
- 4 matched mains: about 1 hit per 1,033 grids, in the long run.
- 3 matched mains: about 1 hit per 57 grids, in the long run.
- 5 matched mains: rare, about 1 per 55,491 grids.
Value framing: lower tiers carry the bulk of winning frequency. The jackpot carries the bulk of headline variance.
Probability of Winning Any Prize
“Any win” is the practical target for many players. It also provides the clearest math lesson: small prizes are not “almost jackpots.” They are different events with radically different rates.
Overall Chance of a Return
If you count any prize as ranks 1–5 (3+ matched mains), the combined probability is:
- ~0.01864 per grid
- ~1 in 53.7 overall chance of any prize
This comes from summing tier probabilities, not from guessing. The model uses the official 6/49 + complementary draw structure and official rank list.
Pie chart suggestion (share of all wins, not share of money)
| Tier | Approx share of all winning tickets |
| Rank 5 (3 matches) | ~94.7% |
| Rank 4 (4 matches) | ~5.2% |
| Rank 3 (5 matches) | ~0.10% |
| Rank 2 (5 + comp) | ~0.0023% |
| Rank 1 (6) | ~0.00038% |
How to sum tier probabilities:
- Convert each tier odds to a decimal probability (1 ÷ N).
- Add the decimals for ranks 1–5.
- Convert back to “1 in N” by taking 1 ÷ total.
- Keep decimals, because rounding hides rare tiers.
Expected value in MAD per 5 MAD grid is typically negative for lottery products. The exact expectation varies with jackpot size, rollover depth, and how many winners split ranks. Entertainment value is real, but it is not yield.
Small Prize vs Big Prize Probability
Small wins occur often enough to appear “regular” at higher volume. Big wins remain remote even with frequent play.
Tier comparison
| Tier | Probability % | Odds | What it usually feels like |
| 3 matches | ~1.765% | 1 in 56.7 | Occasional, especially with many plays |
| 4 matches | ~0.0968% | 1 in 1,033 | Rare, but visible in communities |
| Jackpot | 0.00000715% | 1 in 13,983,816 | Vanishing at personal scale |
Pros and cons focus:
- Small-tier focus: steadier feedback, but limited upside.
- Jackpot focus: huge upside, but almost always zero return.
- Mixed approach: controls spending while preserving variance.
Balanced expectations: treat every grid as a low-cost event with a known failure rate. The math does not “remember” your previous losses.
How System Bets Change Loto Maroc Odds
System play means covering multiple 6-number combinations using a larger set of chosen numbers. Loto Maroc offers “option multiple” for 7, 8, 9, or 10 numbers. Costs are fixed in MAD, and coverage rises fast.
Mathematical Effect of System Play
Coverage formula: If you pick n numbers, the number of 6-number combinations covered is C(n,6).
System coverage counts:
- System 7: C(7,6) = 7 combinations
- System 8: C(8,6) = 28 combinations
- System 9: C(9,6) = 84 combinations
- System 10: C(10,6) = 210 combinations
Effective jackpot odds improve by the same multiplier:
- Base: 1 in 13,983,816
- System 7: ~1 in 1,997,688
- System 8: ~1 in 499,422
- System 9: ~1 in 166,474
- System 10: ~1 in 66,590
Formula table
| Item | Formula | Meaning |
| Combinations covered | C(n,6) | Entries embedded in one system |
| Adjusted jackpot odds | 13,983,816 ÷ C(n,6) | “1 in N” after coverage |
| Cost per combination | Cost ÷ C(n,6) | Efficiency metric |
Step-by-step selection:
- Pick your system size (7–10 numbers).
- Choose numbers as a set, not as one grid.
- Accept that prize tiers can trigger multiple wins in one draw.
- Budget for repeated draws, not one dramatic shot.
Increased Coverage vs Cost
Official listed costs for option multiple:
- 7 numbers: 35 MAD
- 8 numbers: 120 MAD
- 9 numbers: 420 MAD
- 10 numbers: 1050 MAD
Cost and probability table
| System | C(n,6) combos | Cost (MAD) | Cost per combo (MAD) | Jackpot odds after system |
| Standard grid | 1 | 5 | 5.00 | 1 in 13,983,816 |
| 7 numbers | 7 | 35 | 5.00 | 1 in 1,997,688 |
| 8 numbers | 28 | 120 | 4.29 | 1 in 499,422 |
| 9 numbers | 84 | 420 | 5.00 | 1 in 166,474 |
| 10 numbers | 210 | 1050 | 5.00 | 1 in 66,590 |
Budgeting tips:
- Fix a weekly MAD ceiling before choosing system size.
- Treat system play as bulk ticketing, not “smart odds.”
- Prefer fewer draws with the same total spend, if variance bothers you.
- Stop increasing system size after losses; that is tilt behavior.
When systems can be rational: group syndicates splitting cost, or players who want fewer administrative tickets for the same coverage. Systems do not change house edge mechanics; they change volume.
Common Misunderstandings About Lottery Odds
Myths push players toward irrational repetition. They also create fake “signals” in random sequences. The correct model is independence plus fixed combinatorics.
“Due Numbers” Fallacy
Gambler’s fallacy: believing a number becomes “due” because it has not appeared recently. In Loto Maroc, each draw is independent. A single number’s chance to appear among the 6 main balls in any one draw is 6/49, not boosted by history.
Real examples from recent 2026 draws (main balls only):
- Number 33 appeared in multiple early-February draws.
- Number 39 recurred several times in late January.
- Number 1 appeared, then disappeared, with no implication.
Frequency snapshot (11 draws: 19 Jan–11 Feb 2026)
| Number | Times drawn | Comment |
| 33 | 4 | Cluster happens in random runs |
| 23 | 3 | Not “hot,” just bunched |
| 37 | 3 | Same story |
| 13 | 3 | Same story |
Advice that stays mathematically clean:
- Use quick-pick/FLASH if you want unbiased selection.
- If you pick manually, avoid “birthday compression” (1–31 only).
- Do not chase “overdue” numbers; it has no causal mechanism.
Misinterpreting Past Results
Pattern bias shows up as “hot numbers,” “cold numbers,” and “this sequence looks engineered.” Independence kills those claims for prediction.
Common misreads and corrections:
- “A number is hot, so it will repeat.” → Past hits do not raise next-draw rate.
- “Cold numbers must appear soon.” → Cold streaks are expected in large spaces.
- “Even/odd balance proves something.” → Balance is a narrative overlay, not a lever.
Fallacies vs facts table
| Claim | What the math says |
| “Streaks mean a bias.” | Streaks occur naturally in random sampling. |
| “Near-miss is progress.” | A 5-match miss is still a loss event. |
| “Systems change the game’s fairness.” | Systems only increase entries and cost. |
Use history for verification and budgeting discipline, not forecasting. Random generators are useful because they cut story-making behavior.
FAQ
What are the jackpot odds in Loto Maroc?
1 in 13,983,816 per 5 MAD grid.
What numbers do you pick in Loto Maroc?
6 main numbers from 1–49; the draw includes 1 complementary.
What is the current jackpot and next draw date?
Next draw: Saturday, 14 Feb 2026; jackpot shown as 8,600,000 MAD.
What is the overall chance to win any prize?
About 1 in 54, counting ranks 1–5 (3+ matches).
When must winnings be paid in Morocco?
Winnings are payable no later than 2 months after the draw date.
